I’m pretty sure you’re reading this article because you just got exposed to the prepper community. This article is aimed to help you comprehensively understand the concept of S.H.T.F, by giving you different angles and examples on how you can understand the term.
You may have read several articles that uses SHTF freely like “you wouldn’t be able to do that once SHTF”.
Understanding what SHTF means is important because it determines your preparedness goal. SHTF survival is important, and it depends on your preparedness.
What does SHTF mean?
SHTF is an acronym for four words: shit hits the fan.
Another popular reference to SHTF is when the fecal matter hit the oscillator.
It’s also popularly referred to by Americans as ‘solids hit the air conditioning’.
A less vulgar reference is ‘stuff hits the fan’.
SHTF refers to a situation which has went from bad to worse. In an extreme sense, SHTF refers to a catastrophe. While in a loose sense, it refers to a situation where there is an emergent criss that will put you into a survival situation. In that situation, you will likely have to practice your survival skills.
More often than not, survivalists use this term to refer to situations which will lead to societal collapse. This includes a wide range of disasters such as natural disasters, a cataclysmic event or even an end-of-days apocalypse. Some use this only in extreme circumstances, i.e. the beginning of the end of the world.
Although there are some variations as to the degree of how bad the situation gets, the general consensus is that SHTF refers that something bad has happened.
Why knowing the concept of SHTF is important?
By knowing what kinds of SHTF events you are facing, you will know what kind of preparations you need to make as a prepper.
As a survivalist, the goal is to prepare for most SHTF situations even if it’s man-made or comes from the wrath of mother nature.
Only when you’re aware of what SHTF situations you’re preparing for, only then you will be able to gear yourself towards such preparations.
Historical Significance
The acronym SHTF has been popularized since the 1930’s. While this term has been said to be popularized since the 1990’s.
In fact, it was said that the term ‘fan’ in ‘Shit Hit the Fan’ refers an agricultural mucker, which a giant machine that sprays farmyard dung everywhere.
This means literally that shit is spraying everywhere. Everything is turning out ‘shitty’. And when shit starts piling up, things start to get real.
This acronym is popularly associated with survivalists and preppers.
SHTF Scenario Examples
There are various SHTF scenarios that are great examples of what the acronym SHTF really means. However, I think it would be great if we can categorize SHTF scenarios into 2 parts:
1) Likely SHTF scenarios; and
2) Unlikely SHTF scenarios.
Unlike most guides that just cover apocalyptic scenarios when it covers the definition of what SHTF entails, I’ll take a more practical and comprehensive approach to define SHTF.
Likely SHTF Scenarios
Some preppers refer likely SHTF scenarios as personal SHTF scenarios.
Take note that ‘personal SHTF scenarios’ is as the name suggests, extremely personal. The possibility of an SHTF situation happening in your life may differ from individuals.
For example, your family history may consist of family members who suffers from diabetes. This means that getting diabetes is a likely SHTF scenario for you, but it may not be true for another individual.
There are some SHTF scenarios that are likely to happen. These SHTF scenarios may occur more than once in our lifetime.
If you’re a practical person looking to prepare for common SHTF situations, this section is for you.
1) Losing your Job and/or Financial Hardship
Since Covid-19 hit, unemployment rates have gone up tremendously, while job security has been deeply threatened.
In fact, when an SHTF situation hits, be it the Covid-19 pandemic or natural disasters, losing your job would be a likely consequence. Businesses may be unable to run, which inevitably leads to the need to cut cost.
This is especially true if your job is your only source of income. Losing your primary source of income will likely put you in a ‘fight or flight’ mode, especially when you don’t have any savings.
Another perspective of this is a situation when you make a fundamental mistake on the job, which causes you to lose your reputation or relevant licenses. This is especially true for professionals such as lawyers or doctors. One small mishap can cause your client to lose millions. Besides getting a lawsuit on top of your head, you may lose your practice license.
2) Minor Natural Disasters
Minor natural disasters are smaller scale natural disasters that happen in some countries all the time. Here are some common natural disasters you may want to prepare for:
Floods – There are floods that happen every year during the monsoon season.
Coastal Flood is one of the common types of flood, which usually happens when seawater pushes up onto the land. Usually, a storm would be sufficient enough to push a high tide that causes water to spill over the shore.
Monsoon Flood often happens during the monsoon season. This kind of flood usually happens because of incessant raining, where the drainage system is unable drain all rainwater.
If you are aware that certain minor natural disasters will happen, make sure you research sufficiently. Make sure you have enough supplies to help you get through the emergency.
Wildfires – Wildfires are pretty common. In 2017, there were 71,499 wildfires occurring in the world.
Sometimes, wildfires are caused by humans. It may be caused by unattended campfires, lightning, volcanic eruptions or even fireworks.
3) Civil Unrest / Rise in Criminal Activities
Civil unrest is not too uncommon. In fact, civil unrest is known to cause a sudden increase in the number of crimes.
More severely, civil disorder refers to activities which arises from civil disobedience from a group of people.
Civil unrest usually happens in high density areas.
In its most extreme form, it comes in forms of demonstration or even riots.
The demonstrations may lead people to getting involved in damaging property, or even other types of crimes.
To prepare yourself for this SHTF situation, you need to learn some self-defense skills and set-up proper self-defense system in your home.
4) Electric Grid Blackout
Most preppers that prepare for off-the grid living are more often than not preparing for a power outage.
Power outages are pretty common in the United States, especially during the winter season.
On a small scale, it means that the power outage may only run for several hours.
On a large scale, this means that the power outage may even run for days.
When the grid goes down, modern life won’t be able to run effectively. The contemporary society needs electricity to run. Electricity is needed for us to charge our laptops, run the refrigerator to help keep our food fresh, allows us to use Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs) and even getting access to the internet.
Without electricity, traffic lights wouldn’t work, offices cannot function, and everything will just remain on a standstill.
5) Problems with Law Enforcements
There may be SHTF scenarios where you’ll face problems with law enforcements. This can come in several forms. I’ll introduce several degrees of problems with law enforcements:
Weak law enforcement – Weak law enforcement is prevalent amongst most countries. This means that the authorities close a blind eye on crimes happening. This happens especially towards crimes which involves people with riches and power.
Fake Law Enforcement – There may be situations where you will see people impersonating law enforcement authorities. This would only happen if there is a collapse in the society, causing fake law enforcement to happen.
6) Climate Change
With how humans are living nowadays, climate change would be inevitable. Most people are dependent on motorcar as transport.
Currently, the world’s climate change has changed for the worse. Carbon dioxide emission is at an all-time high.
Although everyone suffers from climate change, the degree of how much it will affect you will depend on your surroundings. If you’re living near glaciers for example, you have to get prepared for a flood. If you’re living near a sea, you need to prepare for the SHTF situation when sea levels rise.
Unlikely SHTF Scenarios
These SHTF scenarios are scenarios which are unlikely to happen. However, we shouldn’t discount these SHTF scenarios too much. In fact, these SHTF scenarios HAVE happened before.
1) Civil War
Civil war means it is a war between citizens of a country. In a civil war, there would be conflict between two organized groups.
The most popular example is the American Civil War, which happened from 1861 until 1865. It was an industrial warfare with artillery and rifles.
2) Major Natural Disasters
Major natural disasters are often a disaster that is capable of severely disrupting the lives of a large number of people. Although this rarely happens, it does happen.
Earthquakes – Earthquakes can be considered as a major natural disaster. When I talk about earthquakes, I am referring to large-scale earthquakes, such as those that happened in Japan.
In Japan, multiple large-scale earthquakes such as the Fukushima earthquake in 2011, Kamaishi earthquake in 2012, Fukushima earthquake in 2016 and Osaka earthquake in 2018.
These earthquakes caused cities to crumble. If you are living in an area prone to earthquakes, you may want to take precautions against this SHTF situation.
Hurricanes – Hurricanes usually comes with windstorms and torrential rains. Every year, there would at least be 6 hurricanes which will form over the Caribbean Sea, Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Katrina happened around August 2005, where it’s one of the five Atlantic hurricanes which caused more than 1800 deaths and few hundred billion in damage.
To prepare yourself for a hurricane, you’ll need to make a family disaster plan to face this SHTF situation. You’ll also need to get prepared to evacuate, never ignore evacuation orders that are issued.
Volcano Eruption – Every year, there are around 50 to 70 volcano eruptions. This would especially be a threat if you are living near a volcano, where you will need to come up with a SHTF plan to prepare for various volcanic eruptions.
3) World War III
World War I happened from 28 July 1914 until 11 November 1918.
While World War II happened from 1 September 1939 until 2 September 1945.
I do acknowledge that there are bodies available which ensures that a war between countries don’t happen, such as the United Nations, history may repeat itself.
Since the world’s population have been incessantly increasing, there are more conflicts than ever before.
If you’re wondering what’s the possibility of World War III happening, you can check out this video:
4) Nuclear Warfare
If World War III does happen, a nuclear warfare would likely occur. Countries would likely be using their most lethal weapons to get their respective objectives.
In light of the proliferation of nuclear weapons, war between countries would be much more lethal.
Some hardcore survivalists go to the extent of preparing for an all-out nuclear warfare between countries. Of course, if a survivalist can pull this off, he or she will be able to face most SHTF situations that may come their way.
5) Pandemic
A Pandemic refers to an outbreak that causes all of humanity to suffer.
The most recent pandemic is the Covid-19 Pandemic.
While other pandemics that has happened before in the past includes SARS.
Virologists themselves have came to a consensus that a pandemic is inevitable. Mutation and new diseases are constantly spreading.
6) Nuclear Meltdown
Ever heard of the Japanese reactor that went into a nuclear meltdown?
In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear disaster happened.This nuclear meltdown was caused by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami.
A nuclear reactor meltdown can happen. If you are aware that your country generates electricity using nuclear energy, this may be an SHTF event that you’ll want to prepare yourself for.
Anyone living near a nuclear reactor should definitely take steps to prepare for a nuclear meltdown.
7) Cyber Attacks
The contemporary society is highly dependent on computers and internet usage.
Now, everything is going digital. Our everyday activities include shopping, buying groceries, banking and entertainment.
Since computers can be infected, this means that our computer can be infiltrated easily. This means our personal data may be siphoned, our computer may get hacked or worse, our money may be siphoned from our pockets.
Of course, cybersecurity companies are upping their game. But, we cannot discount the possibility of cyber-attacks occurring.
Conclusion
I hope this article helped you understand what SHTF really means. SHTF encompasses so much more. It doesn’t just mean end of the world. It can refer to your personal SHTF situations, including losing your job, losing your loved ones to an illness or even family issues.
With a wider perspective of what SHTF means, I hope that you’ll be able to plan and prepare better, especially since your aim should potentially be clearer.